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Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 07:06:17 -0800 (PST)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Tue, Jan 15, 2002
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[IMAGE]=09


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  H=
ouston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   D=
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Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      =09  =09 [IMAGE]    Complimentary version=
 of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you woul=
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reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad=
ersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Tuesday, Jan 15, 2002 at 07=
:39AM EST    Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Jan 15, 2002 at 09:08AM EST =
 Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote     Congratulati=
ons Andy Weingarten, APB Energy!  Winner of the $50,000 Winter 2000-01 AQUI=
LA/AMS Seasonal Forecasting Competition. For more information please visit:=
 AMS  or Aquila    New! >> Printable PDF Trader Summary  (You must have Ado=
be Acrobat Reader  to open or print a PDF)   Click here for a definition of=
 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'      Today: Tuesday, January 15, 2002 =
  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [I=
MAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(=
CTR) 38 NC ERCOT(SP) 67 +1 FRCC(SE) 71 NC MAAC(NE) 49 NC MAIN(CTR) 35 +1 MA=
PP(HP) 24 +1 NPCC(NE) 38 NC SERC(SE) 57 NC SPP(SP) 52 +1 WSCC(NW) 36 +3 WSC=
C(RK) 29 NC WSCC(SW) 55 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   R=
eg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 25 38 32 28 54 58 50 Max 34 28 41 37 32 =
61 66 56 Min 27 22 33 27 23 50 54 46 Range 7 6 8 10 9 11 12 10 StD-P 1.7 1.=
9 2.0 3.0 2.5 3.3 3.9 2.8 Count 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See =
Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 1-5 Discussi=
on:    The battle rages on between the Hudson Bay polar vortex and the Cari=
bbean ridge. While widespread cold is still not likely, widespread stormine=
ss is.   I don't expect any large storms during the period, but a series of=
 weak to moderate ones appear likely. With the jet stream in a zonal flow, =
it gets difficult to bring up much in the way of Gulf moisture. Therefore, =
precipitation production is more a function of the dynamics of the storm it=
self. Bottom line, nothing heavy for a while. This zonal flow is also keepi=
ng the polar and subtropical jet streams separate and distinct. There is pl=
enty of cold air now on this side of the pole in Canada waiting for an excu=
se to come South. but, it runs into a wall in the Northern U.S. Any buckle =
of the jet stream looks to be confined to the Western U.S. over the next se=
veral ! days and probably longer. That trough in the West looks fairly weak=
 so the temperature departures from normal are slight.     Tomorrow: Wednes=
day, January 16, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix=
    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enla=
rge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 36 +1 ERCOT(SP) 68 -1 FRCC(SE) 71 +2 MAAC(NE) 41=
 NC MAIN(CTR) 33 +4 MAPP(HP) 21 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 +1 SERC(SE) 56 +1 SPP(SP) 49=
 +3 WSCC(NW) 33 +1 WSCC(RK) 23 -2 WSCC(SW) 53 -2     Range Standard Deviati=
on [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 30 25 33 32 21 55 61 =
49 Max 32 27 40 35 32 60 67 54 Min 27 22 27 26 13 50 57 44 Range 5 5 13 9 1=
9 10 10 10 StD-P 1.2 1.3 3.8 2.7 4.4 3.1 2.8 3.2 Count 14 14 14 14 14 14 14=
 14 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Mat=
rix   Day 3: Thursday, January 17, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.  =
 Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Clic=
k on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 34 +1 ERCOT(SP) 62 -2 FRCC(SE)=
 76 +1 MAAC(NE) 45 +3 MAIN(CTR) 27 NC MAPP(HP) 19 NC NPCC(NE) 32 +3 SERC(SE=
) 57 +1 SPP(SP) 39 -1 WSCC(NW) 36 NC WSCC(RK) 23 -3 WSCC(SW) 53 -1     Rang=
e Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 26 =
22 35 32 21 57 56 49 Max 29 25 38 37 25 61 64 53 Min 23 17 32 28 15 54 52 4=
5 Range 6 8 6 9 10 7 12 8 StD-P 1.9 2.8 1.3 2.2 3.5 2.0 2.5 2.8 Count 12 12=
 12 12 12 12 12 12 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the=
 Volatility Matrix    Day 4: Friday, January 18, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice: =
 Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE]=
[IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 31 -1 ERCOT(SP) =
63 -1 FRCC(SE) 77 +2 MAAC(NE) 38 NC MAIN(CTR) 26 +1 MAPP(HP) 15 -1 NPCC(NE)=
 30 -1 SERC(SE) 54 -1 SPP(SP) 39 NC WSCC(NW) 35 -1 WSCC(RK) 23 -3 WSCC(SW) =
52 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE =
SP SW Mean 23 22 29 32 20 56 56 48 Max 26 27 35 35 27 62 59 53 Min 18 17 24=
 26 11 51 53 43 Range 8 10 11 9 16 11 6 10 StD-P 2.3 3.2 3.4 3.2 5.7 3.3 1.=
4 3.0 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecas=
t Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 5: Saturday, January 19, 2002   =
Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMA=
GE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CT=
R) 33 +2 ERCOT(SP) 58 NC FRCC(SE) 79 +2 MAAC(NE) 37 +2 MAIN(CTR) 30 +1 MAPP=
(HP) 25 NC NPCC(NE) 28 NC SERC(SE) 56 +2 SPP(SP) 42 NC WSCC(NW) 38 -3 WSCC(=
RK) 29 -3 WSCC(SW) 53 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg=
 CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 27 27 29 33 22 57 56 48 Max 34 32 33 38 29 62=
 63 53 Min 23 22 23 28 14 54 50 43 Range 11 10 10 10 15 8 13 10 StD-P 3.6 3=
.7 2.3 1.9 4.9 2.3 3.2 2.9 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Click Here  to See=
 Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 6-10 Discus=
sion:  The 6-10 day outlook in my view features more of the same. There is =
frustration in that Day 10 models continue to show the Southward progressio=
n of arctic cold, but without any real change in the upper level flow patte=
rns. While I recognize cold air by weight can flow South on its own, it is =
tough to get very far South. The NWS 6-10 day outlook is warm virtually eve=
rywhere East of the Rockies. I am inclined to trim back the Northern part o=
f that to allow for that slow South drift of arctic air. In addition this p=
attern may grow more favorable for Great Lakes enhanced snows. But, without=
 a large surface High to press South out of the Yukon and with the Caribbea=
n ridge still exerting an influence, I cannot see any large scale cold outb=
reaks developing.    Day 6: Sunday, January 20, 2002  Click Here  for Syncr=
asy's 6-10 summary information.  Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatili=
ty Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on imag=
e to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 37 +1 ERCOT(SP) 61 -1 FRCC(SE) 79 +2 MA=
AC(NE) 38 -1 MAIN(CTR) 35 +1 MAPP(HP) 30 +2 NPCC(NE) 32 NC SERC(SE) 56 +1 S=
PP(SP) 46 NC WSCC(NW) 41 +1 WSCC(RK) 32 NC WSCC(SW) 54 -1     Range Standar=
d Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 29 29 30 35 =
26 58 56 48 Max 33 33 38 41 33 62 62 54 Min 25 24 25 30 17 54 49 44 Range 8=
 9 13 11 16 8 13 10 StD-P 2.2 2.1 3.8 2.3 5.1 1.8 3.4 3.2 Count 9 9 9 9 9 9=
 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Ma=
trix   Day 7: Monday, January 21, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   =
Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click=
 on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 41 +4 ERCOT(SP) 63 -1 FRCC(SE) =
78 +2 MAAC(NE) 44 +3 MAIN(CTR) 36 +3 MAPP(HP) 31 +7 NPCC(NE) 36 +4 SERC(SE)=
 58 +2 SPP(SP) 50 +3 WSCC(NW) 40 -1 WSCC(RK) 36 +1 WSCC(SW) 57 +1     Range=
 Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 31 3=
2 31 35 30 59 57 49 Max 36 37 38 40 37 66 61 57 Min 28 30 24 32 24 55 52 45=
 Range 8 7 14 8 13 11 9 12 StD-P 2.3 1.8 3.6 2.6 3.8 2.8 3.1 3.5 Count 9 9 =
9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volati=
lity Matrix    Day 8: Tuesday, January 22, 2002   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta=
 Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE=
]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 40 +9 ERCOT(SP) 66 +5 =
FRCC(SE) 72 +3 MAAC(NE) 40 +9 MAIN(CTR) 38 NC MAPP(HP) 33 -6 NPCC(NE) 33 +4=
 SERC(SE) 62 +14 SPP(SP) 55 +2 WSCC(NW) 27 -3 WSCC(RK) 23 -6 WSCC(SW) 45 +2=
     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW=
 Mean 35 32 34 34 28 62 61 49 Max 38 35 40 40 36 65 64 56 Min 31 28 29 27 2=
2 58 57 45 Range 7 7 11 13 14 7 7 11 StD-P 2.1 1.4 2.9 4.5 4.7 1.9 1.6 4.1 =
Count 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forecast Used Within =
the Volatility Matrix   Day 9: Wednesday, January 23, 2002   Syncrasy's Cho=
ice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [I=
MAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 47 +6 ERCOT=
(SP) 57 -9 FRCC(SE) 72 +1 MAAC(NE) 55 +19 MAIN(CTR) 39 -7 MAPP(HP) 21 -16 N=
PCC(NE) 41 +10 SERC(SE) 64 +6 SPP(SP) 43 -13 WSCC(NW) 30 +3 WSCC(RK) 13 -6 =
WSCC(SW) 43 +2     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE =
NW RK SE SP SW Mean 35 30 39 34 25 62 57 49 Max 38 37 47 39 37 66 63 55 Min=
 29 23 34 29 12 58 52 43 Range 9 14 13 10 25 8 11 12 StD-P 2.2 3.9 4.7 3.6 =
8.1 2.2 3.3 4.4 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 Click Here  to See Each Weather Forec=
ast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Day 10: Thursday, January 24, 2002=
   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [=
IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR=
(CTR) 24 -25 ERCOT(SP) 41 -14 FRCC(SE) 70 -2 MAAC(NE) 51 -3 MAIN(CTR) 15 -2=
6 MAPP(HP) 18 -10 NPCC(NE) 44 -2 SERC(SE) 50 -12 SPP(SP) 39 -4 WSCC(NW) 35 =
+3 WSCC(RK) 28 +10 WSCC(SW) 51 +6     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMA=
GE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 23 29 39 33 21 52 42 42 Max 29 34 46=
 38 26 57 50 51 Min 16 23 32 29 15 47 38 34 Range 13 11 14 9 11 10 12 17 St=
D-P 4.4 4.2 5.7 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.3 6.7 Count 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 Click Here  to Se=
e Each Weather Forecast Used Within the Volatility Matrix    Trader Summary=
 is designed around and formatted for the  [IMAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowW=
all? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also be viewed from www.syncrasy.co=
m  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequote.com     [IMAGE]  =09
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